Tuesday, March 17, 2009

You _are_ a precious snowflake

Please, O gods of the interwebs, forgive the lateness of mine offerings, for I have been Unclean in health and unfit for your temple.
...or something like that. Regular service resumes now~ish. Be warned: author is still ill, may not make sense.
You are unique, wondrously and amazingly so. A pretty perfect snowflake, unique in all the world-- no matter what bitterness Fight Club might try and telly. We can prove it, with math.
Start with your parents: I have no idea who they are. What are the odds they might hook up to make a baby? Say you were born in the late 80s-- in 1987, there were 5 billion people on this planet, most of them of a baby-making age. For a safe estimate, say 2 billion men, and 2 billion women, with the extra billion either too young or old to have been able to get it on with sufficient vigor to result in a child.
So one of those 2 billion men is your father. I don't know who, so that's already 2 billion to one odds against your existence, right there. Now, your mother? Each of those 2 billion men (ignoring geography-- love conquers all!) has at least some chance of getting jiggy with each of those 2 billion women, one of whom must be your mother. So that is 2 billion men, times 2 billion women-- naively, we can say the odds of your parents becoming entangled to produce you are (2 billion)*(2 billion) -- that's 4*1018 , or 4 followed by 18 zeros-- to one. This is, admittedly naive: much more likely your parents lived in the same region of the same country, perhaps shared the same hometown. On the other hand, it fits perfectly accurately for Barack Obama.
Now, if 1:4*1018 isn't rare enough, it gets better: those are only the chances of 2 random people having kids (again, very naively; there are millions of factors that could affect that probability.) and does not differentiate between you and any potential siblings. Anyone who has had siblings can tell you, that small change in genetic material can make a huge difference in personalty, temperament, and even body type. Now, a woman is born with ~1 million eggs. This number is constantly being diminished over time, but we don't know which-- and we don't know which gave rise to you, either. So each of those 4*1018 have the random choice of 1 million eggs to make a baby with, so we have to multiply again. The combinations are up to 4*1024 and we haven't even added daddy's contribution.
Now, how many sperm does a father have? Unlike mom, he isn't born with a set amount: constantly making more, not necessarily with the exact same combinations of genes. To the tune of 4 million sperm per hour. (They die, and are re-absorbed, in case you are wondering. The male propensity for wankin' it has other roots than building pressure from an unquenchable fountain of spunk) 4 million sperm per hour, over an active lifetime, means somewhere around a trillion. So, to sum up, 3 billion possible men, times 3 billion possible women, times a million possible eggs per woman, and a trillion possible sperm per men... that is a huge number. A really, really huge number. In scientific notation, we're up to 4*1036 ("four undecillion," and yes, after a certain point mathematicians do basically just make numbers up) possibilities, of which you are the result.
So, the next time someone calls you 1 in a million, slap the mo'fo up the head for selling you short. You aren't one in a million: you're one in four undecillion.
Which, when you think about it, is pretty much im-friggin'-possible odds. Up there with spontaneously burning bushes and lead just up and deciding to become gold.
Congratulations, O reader.
You are a miracle.
We all are.

(And that is why Dr. Manhattan allows us to live.)

1 comments:

  1. I waited to read this until I needed to read something really special. You did not disappoint. You are so smart.

    ReplyDelete